“Uncertainty is intrinsically related to the complex issues at stake in environmental sciences”, says Mark Huijbregts, professor of Integrated Environmental Assessment at Radboud University. “I want to help ensure that policy makers can make choices for the environment and climate that are based, as much as possible, on facts, without pretending that we can accurately calculate the finest details.”
Huijbregts and his fellow environmental researchers are not doing field work, but work behind their computers building mathematical models. This enables them to identify the impact of chemicals, products, technologies, and human activity on the environment.
This year, for example, his group calculated how much the use of energy from biomass together with underground CO2 storage (BECCS) result in climate benefits. They also provided more clarity as to whether electric cars are currently and will be in the future as environmentally friendly as we think they are (the answer: yes).
The Strength of the Global Scale
“Our global models provide an overall view, while at the same time also indicating which measure is most effective and in which area”, says Huijbregts. “A major advantage of a global model is that it enables us to identify the global environmental consequences of a certain technology and under which circumstances.”
In the case of electric cars: Researchers determined that for 95% of all kilometres driven across the globe, electrification would have a positive effect on the total CO2 emissions. However, it would be wiser to retain the fossil fuel fleet in India, Poland, and Iran for the time being. “Such insights enable us to provide targeted analyses and make recommendations.”
The Environmental Footprint of Online Shopping
Products and technologies have a certain environmental footprint of their own, but people's behaviour is at least as influential. This was demonstrated by Huijbregts and colleagues last year in a study looking at shopping practices. They compared the emissions associated with two shopping methods: having your goods delivered or picking them up yourself.
“In the UK, going to the shop yourself generates, on average, about one and a half times more emissions per product purchased than when the products are delivered by the supermarket. This is because 80% of shopping is done by driving to the shop by car. In the Netherlands, the difference between doing your own shopping and having it delivered to your home by the supermarket probably does not apply. This is because we ‘only’ do 44% of our shopping by car. This means that the choice of means of transport to do your own shopping is crucial in drawing conclusions about what shopping method is more environmentally friendly.”
Systematic Change
Our behaviour has been radically changed by the coronavirus pandemic and its effects are undeniable, according to Huijbregts. “For me, the coronavirus pandemic highlights the need for a major systemic change in order to meet climate goals and other environmental targets. At a time when society is being paused for a moment, we are seeing a temporary reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, but it is by no means the 100% reduction we want by 2050. I am quite shocked by that realisation.”
“We already knew this, but it is now becoming even clearer that there is very urgent work to be done on a large scale to meet our climate goals and other environmental targets by, for example, making a complete switch to renewable energy sources in the short term.”
You have a part to play
Our society is facing major challenges. Radboud University wants to contribute to a healthy, free world with equal chances for everyone. With ‘Je bent nodig’ (You have a part to play), Radboud University aims to reach people who want to contribute to that goal. At Jebentnodig.nl you’ll find more articles.
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