On 7 January, Fito, the boss of drug cartel Los Choneros, escaped from prison, possibly with the help of prison staff. President Daniel Noboa subsequently declared a state of emergency, which among other things involved giving the army control over prisons and border control. Armed men then took over a TV station and more than 200 prison employees were taken hostage by prisoners. 'The current situation in Ecuador has occurred before in other Latin American countries. Between 2006 and 2016, for example, Mexico was plagued by horrific killings, gang wars and militarisation with widespread human rights abuses,' Adriaensen argues.
'Compared with Mexico and neighbouring country Colombia, Ecuador had far less drug violence until 2016,' Adriaensen says. However, things changed following the capture of drug lord El Chapo and the agreement reached between the Colombian government and the FARC at around the same time. Controls in Colombia and Mexico were tightened and the drug networks from those countries moved south towards Ecuador.
Free rein to Narcos
The two major Mexican drug organisations, Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación and El Chapo's Sinaloa cartel, are now fighting their war on Ecuadorian territory, supported by local gangs like Los Lobos and Los Choneros. 'The storage and export of cocaine is increasingly being channelled through Ecuador rather than Peru or Colombia.'
It is no coincidence that the Mexican cartels set their sights on Ecuador in around 2016, Adriaensen argues. 'In 2008, President Rafael Correa amended the constitution, making emigration to Ecuador very easy, so also for Colombian drug criminals. Furthermore, in 2009 Correa closed the US army base in Manta, giving free rein to the narcos in that region.' The introduction of the US dollar as the legal currency in 2000 did not help either. Adriaensen: 'This made it more difficult to detect corruption and money laundering.'
Carte blanche
The declaration of a state of emergency gave the army far-reaching powers to restore order. 'For the first time in Ecuador's history, President Noboa established that there was a 'conflicto armado interno' (internal armed conflict) and parliament agreed to grant amnesty to the army. In effect, this gives the army carte blanche.
While there are many voices in the Ecuadorian press in favour of Noboa's crackdown, there is also criticism of this carte blanche, due to the potential risk of human rights violations. 'For example, anyone with certain tattoos which are supposedly associated with gangs may be arrested without trial.' Noboa's decisiveness is also in doubt. 'Noboa has only been president since last autumn and although security and economic recovery were key pillars of his campaign, he has yet to present any concrete long-term plans.'
Weak institutions
The doubt also stems from the country's weak institutions. 'In the weeks before Fito's escape, for example, the authorities claimed they had the situation under control and that the violence was abating. That has not done anything to boost confidence in the authorities.'
An alternative to the hardline approach is to reach agreements with the cartels. That happened in Ecuador during the Correa administration and in Mexico in the 1990s. Unfortunately, this undermines the rule of law in the long run.
More vulnerable countries
Structural solutions to drug violence are a long way off, according to Adriaensen. 'The fact that the violence is now moving to Ecuador and that Peru is also vulnerable does not mean that the problems in Mexico and Colombia are over. On the contrary, it indicates that few countries are safe anymore. Even Chile, long seen as the Switzerland of South America, is now seeing an increase in drug crime.'
In addition, headhunting seems to make little sense. 'For every capo caught, ten others are ready to take their place.' From education to the police and politics. Changes need to take place across the board to achieve stable institutions and structurally eliminate violence and corruption, Adriaensen believes. 'Otherwise, similar situations will arise in other countries.'
European countries and the United States also bear some responsibility. Adriaensen: 'We need more international cooperation to tackle money laundering, for example.' Over the past three years, both ING and ABN AMRO have paid hundreds of millions in fines for gross negligence in preventing money laundering. 'And, of course, cocaine consumption. Internationally, demand for cocaine continues to grow. While that is the case, drug violence will not stop.'
Photo: The Ecuadorian city of Guayaquil. Source: Wikimedia Commons
