Verbeek says that, at the beginning of the war, a symbolic concession to Russia might have offered a solution. “The promise that Ukraine would never join NATO, for example. But the Russians did not even accept that proposal. Meanwhile, the relationship with Russia has been so damaged that there is little appetite in the West for making any concessions at all.”
Big explanation
The political scientist says that the question is also: what permanent solution does Russia itself have in mind? “What concessions are they prepared to make? I do not see them giving up Crimea or Donbas just yet. They have no interest in that in terms of geopolitics or bargaining power.” The professor emphasises that, in any case, we still do not know exactly what Russia wants. That is one of the things that have surprised me in recent months: we are still missing the big explanation as to why Putin invaded Ukraine. Unless you believe that he wants to restore the borders of the old Soviet Union. I have no evidence to support or oppose that idea — that's the crazy part. We don’t know.” He is also surprised that Western countries do not publicly talk about their goals in Ukraine. “What does the West want? A ceasefire and return to the situation at the beginning of February, giving back Crimea to Ukraine and returning to the situation before 2014, or the downfall and public trial of President Putin?”
Shift
Verbeek does see a shift in the position of Western countries: NATO is preparing to support Ukraine for months, or even years. The US Secretary of Defense says that they want to arm Ukraine to such an extent that Russia will not be able to afford any new military “adventures” in the next 15 years. That means a long-term proxy war on Ukraine territory: armies dig in and refugees will not be able to return home for years to come.”
The Russians are in a difficult military situation — at least, worse than they initially expected. In the short term, this offers opportunities for a ceasefire. “But then there will have to be some concession to Russia.” And what that means for peace and security in Ukraine in the long run is a different story.
Targeted sanctions
Can we bring Russia to the negotiating table with targeted sanctions against oligarchs and Putin's inner circle? Verbeek: “If that was the objective, then it has not been achieved yet. I’m not saying that you should not do it, as sanctions are important symbolic measures that also send signals of resolve to other countries in the world.”
The question is, of course, whether we can trust Russia to honour its commitments at all. But, without wanting to come across as defending Putin, that is how Russia thinks about us as well. Before 2008, NATO hinted that Ukraine might eventually join. For many Russians, this is a sign that the West in particular cannot be trusted when it comes to the neutrality of Ukraine and other border countries.”
Third World War
Some countries, including China, have not condemned Russia in UN meetings. How should we interpret that? “China is a major stakeholder in this conflict,” confirms Verbeek. “Some of their trade routes, in which they have invested billions in recent years, pass through Russia. The ongoing war in Ukraine is therefore causing economic losses to China. On the other hand, the weakening of Russia’s military is an opportunity to strengthen the Chinese presence in Central Asia and to induce future Russian support for China’s foreign policy objectives. At the same time”, concludes Verbeek, “we must realise that many southern countries see this war as a regional conflict between northern European states. That this is the possible beginning of a third world war seems a Eurocentric idea a them.”
This article was previously published in Radboud Magazine #72. Photo: Wikimedia Commons